{"id":879,"date":"2024-07-09T01:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-09T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timothypatrickbrown.com\/?p=879"},"modified":"2024-08-15T23:03:39","modified_gmt":"2024-08-15T22:03:39","slug":"what-are-the-chances-of-becoming-a-successful-writer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timothypatrickbrown.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/09\/what-are-the-chances-of-becoming-a-successful-writer\/","title":{"rendered":"What Are The Chances Of Becoming A Successful Writer?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n


It\u2019s a long road to become even a moderately successful writer. There are many hurdles and hoops to jump through. So, given a group of people, what are the chances that they will make it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Worked Example<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s some typical steps on the authorial journey. At each stage, I\u2019ve imagined only half make it through to the next step.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

\"(a_1)\" 50% of people love books<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(a_2)\" Of those, 50% want to write a book<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(b_1)\" Of those, 50% create the outline of their first book<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(b_2)\" Of those, 50% start writing the first chapter<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(b_3)\" Of those, 50% finish the first draft<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(b_4)\" Of those, 50% finish the second draft<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(b_5)\" Of those, 50% finish the edits<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(b_6)\" Of those, 50% send it to beta readers <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(b_7)\" Of those, 50% reedit and continue, after receiving beta reader feedback<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(b_8)\" Of those, 50% improve their writing based on the beta reader feedback<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(b_9)\" Of those, 50% finish the final draft<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(c_1)\" Of those, 50% start their second novel while the first is being submitted to agents, publishers and\/or competitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(c_2)\" Of those, 50% finish the first draft of their second novel<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(c_3)\" Of those, 50% continue with their second novel, even though their first novel has received multiple rejections<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(c_4)\" Of those, 50% complete the final draft of their second novel<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(d_1)\" Of those, 50% submit their book to agents<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(d_2)\" Of those, 50% get agents<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(e_1)\" Of those agents, 50% successfully pitch to publishers<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(e_2)\" Of those books, 50% get published<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(e_3)\" Of those books, 50% are moderately successful<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(f_1)\" Of those authors, 50% write a third book<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(f_2)\" Of those books, 50% are moderately successful<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"(f_3)\" Of those authors, 50% continue to write further moderately successful books<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taking the population of Australia which is 26,696,082 – in any given year the number of Australian\u2019s who start writing and will ultimately go on to have a moderately successful career will be <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"26,696,082 * 0.5^{24} = 1.59\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So 2 or 3 people every year in all of Australia. That\u2019s not so many.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Equation<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

(If you are like me then) it’s fun to spin this out into an equation. Considering the statements and changing from a static percentage to probabilites then it could become<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A = P * {a_n}{b_n}{c_n}{d_n}{e_n}{f_n}\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

where:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A\" is the number of people who will have a career as a successful writer in a given year<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"P\" is the initial population of potential writers<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"a_n\" is the combined probability of being interesting in becoming a writer – statements \"a_1\" and \"a_2\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"b_n\" is the combined probability of writing a first book – statements \"b_1 \ldots b_9\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"c_n\" is the combined probability of going on to write a second book – statements \"c_1 \ldots c_4\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"d_n\" is the combined probability of being picked up by a literary agent- statements \"d_1\" and \"d_2\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"e_n\" is the combined probability of being traditionally published- statements \"e_1 \ldots e_3\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"f_n\" is the combined probability of establishing a long term writing career – statements \"f_1 \ldots f_3\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tweaks And Variations<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Now we’ve got our exciting equation we can play about with the figures and assumptions<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No Agent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Having an agent isn’t mandatory so we could take out statements \"d_1\" and \"d_2\" and our calculation becomes<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"26,696,082 * 0.5^{22} = 6.36\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So around 6 Australians a year get to be full time authors. A bit better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Self Publishing<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps we are self publishing as well, so we can also lose \"e_1\" and \"e_2\". No-one needs to pitch anything to anyone – we just do it ourselves. Let’s further imagine that the odds are the same whether we traditionally publish or self publish. Our calculation is<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"26,696,082 * 0.5^{20} = 24.45\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now its between 24 and 25 people a year which is nicer as that would fill a restaurant table with our new Aussie authors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Harder Than You Thought<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

But perhaps it’s all harder than we though. Maybe we do need an agent and do need to be traditionally published but the chances are low of getting either. Let’s drop \"d_1\", \"d_2\", \"e_1\" and \"e_2\" to a 20% chance of success. It’s hard out there – and our calculation becomes<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"26,696,082 * 0.5^{20} * 0.2^{4} = 0.05\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So there will be a successful Australian author once every 24 years – once in a generation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Are The Chances Really<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Our calculations reveal that the chances of embarking on a successful authorial career lie somewhere between being invited to to the Governor General’s birthday tea and being crowned the King of Australia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fortunately being an aspiring author I can ignore all this. I have the gift of delusional thinking<\/a> and truly believe these numbers (or any other negative sounding numbers) don’t apply. I’ll just carry on writing with the unproven, uncalculable faith that it will all work out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I reckon it will.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Photo by Thomas T<\/a> on Unsplash<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s a long road to become even a moderately successful writer. There are many hurdles and hoops to jump through. So, given a group of people, what are the chances that they will make it. Worked Example Here\u2019s some typical steps on the authorial journey. At each stage, I\u2019ve imagined only half make it through 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